Here in Las Vegas, in the world of sports gambling, bettors depend on oddsmakers to set odds on who is likely to win a sporting event. In the world of politics, political prognosticators attempt to give the public insight into who is most likely to win an election.
Veteran journalist Cliston Brown has been making predictions about elections in the United States for more than a decade. He has written for both The New York Observer and California Globe. The political commentator joined us on CYInterview to breakdown the 2020 Presidential and Congressional Elections.
First, focusing on the United States Senate, Cliston believes that the Democrats or Republicans will hold a 51 to 49 seat advantage or we will end up with a 50 to 50 tie in what has been called the greatest deliberative body in the world. He believes this will happen because people tend to vote for the same political party for both President and Senate. He says split ballots are becoming less frequent:
“In the last 20 years, the split has been less than 20 percent of the time. In 2016 for the first time in history, there was a 100 percent correlation. Every state that voted Republican for President that had a Senate race voted Republican for Senate. Every state that voted Democratic for President but had a Senate race voted Democrat for Senate as well. I’m not saying it’s necessarily going to be a 100 percent correlation this time, but that is the trend. We are moving in that direction. People are splitting their tickets less at the federal level.”
When it comes to making predictions about elections in the United States, Cliston claims he is best at congressional election forecasts. He believes the House of Representatives will maintain a Democratic majority:
“I see the Democrats retaining the House comfortably, possibly adding a few seats to their advantage.”
Mr. Brown leans towards Joe Biden winning the Presidential Election over Donald Trump. The political journalist believes Mr. Biden will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, swing states many believe he needs to win in order to prevail in the electoral college and to thereby win the presidency. Mr. Trump won all three states in 2016.
“He’s [Joe Biden] had a real history with labor unions and I think we’re gonna see him do better in that segment, which is gonna be crucial. Right now I do believe he is certainly ahead in the key states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, but again, he’s gotta lock that in. I mean, this is where the ball game’s gonna be decided. I think that he [Biden] is in better shape than Hillary Clinton was in those states and should win them. And if he does, he wins the election.”
Featured columnist Jay Bildstein joins us for this segment. He and Cliston Brown get into an in-depth discussion about all the factors that will decide the 2020 Presidential Election.
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